Populations are increasing throughout the United States and globally. Population concentration increases the impact of localized emergencies such as weather, chemical spills, floods, etc., and thus increases the importance of notifying the public of emergency conditions in a timely manner.
Emergency services and public safety organizations have established technological systems that help to identify and communicate emergency situations. For example, emergencies may be centrally reported via 911 telephone communication systems, and disseminated via radio, satellite or Internet communications. Prediction methodologies have improved early detection of pending threats, particularly weather related threats such as tornadoes and floods, and communications networks have expanded to assist in the dissemination of this information. According to the National Weather Service (NWS) report “Reinventing Goals for 2000 Status—March 1999”, the NWS requested $42.1 million in FY2000 for its Natural Disaster Reduction Initiative (NDRI 2000) to continue to modernize and improve lead-times for severe weather events and expand the number of NOAA Weather Radio (NWR) stations. Forecasting and detection technologies, coupled with almost real-time distribution networks, have improved the average lead-time for severe weather events dramatically. Statistically, the NWS reports lead-time detections for thunderstorm events are currently 17.9 minutes. This is an improvement of 43% over the pre-modernization lead-times detection of 12.5 minutes for thunderstorms. Likewise, the improved tornado lead-time detection average is currently 11.0 minutes; improved by 162% over the pre-modernization lead-time average of 4.2 minutes. Furthermore, flash flood detections currently stand at 52 minutes of lead-time with an astounding improvement of 491%. Substantial increases in lead-time detection should contribute to more effective notification and ultimately more lives saved.
Although these improvements have provided greater accuracy and lead time in severe weather notifications, such notifications do not seem to be adequately communicated to citizens. Preliminary data as of 7-13-99 for the year 1999, shows that 99% of the total fatalities for tornadoes occurred during tornado watches. Statistics for 1998 similarly show 85% of all fatalities also occurred during tornado watches. Many of these fatalities could have been avoided if the persons involved had sought adequate shelter. This clearly indicates that there is a weakness in the existing infrastructure for notifying citizens of severe weather conditions. A review of this infrastructure and its shortfalls is thus in order.
Currently, the National Weather Service (NWS) collects and disseminates near real-time weather data to help identify and distribute alerts, watches and weather warnings for specific geographical regions around-the-clock over various distribution networks. For the cost of essential down link equipment, virtually anyone may receive nearly all this information at no charge. However, identifying what information is personally relevant does require the continuous sorting and digestion of the entire data stream 24 hours a day and seven days per week. Practically speaking, many individuals just have no need for the entire data stream. They just need to know when an emergency pertains to them specifically, no matter where they are and no matter what time of day. For this, people rely on local media organizations and government organizations to monitor and provide notification should an emergency occur. Many public and private entities currently receive this data stream, then parcel, process, categorize and sometimes enhance this information to rebroadcast over various distribution networks so local citizenry, populations and private industry may be alerted or informed. Nevertheless, the typical citizen must rely upon the vigilance of public and private media broadcasters to constantly monitor this data stream and get “the word out” in time of emergency.
To help provide additional insurance and improve the likelihood for notification, individuals can purchase a NOAA Weather Radio (NWR) receiver. NOAA Weather Radio (NWR) is a service of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of the U.S. Department of Commerce. As the “Voice of the National Weather Service”, it provides continuous broadcasts of the current weather information as well as hazardous local environmental conditions. Furthermore, a NWR receiver can detect codes in a NWR broadcast indicative of hazardous weather conditions, and respond by producing a special alarm signal that is separate from normal playback of weather broadcasts.
Most NOAA weather stations broadcast 24 hours a day, but NWR coverage is limited by nature and design to an area within 40 miles of the transmitter. Those living in cities surrounded by large buildings and those in mountain valleys with standard receivers get little or no reception at considerably less than 40 miles. As of February 1998, approximately 70 to 80 percent of the U.S. population are capable of receiving NOAA Weather Radio broadcasts. Most recently, as a result of the “Gore Initiative”, there has been 99 new NWR stations put into operation and funding is being sought for 100 new stations to ultimately achieve a 95% population coverage in each state. Thus, ultimately the system will leave at least 5% of the population unable to hear broadcasts or weather alerts.
Of course, the 95% coverage figure quoted in the previous paragraph, assumes that everyone within the coverage area of a NOAA Weather Radio transmitter has purchased a NWR receiver and will always have it turned on. Unfortunately, many people that actually own a NOAA Weather Radio often leave it unattended and unmonitored. There are several reasons for this, ranging from misuse of the equipment to discomfort with leaving any household appliance continuously on. Perhaps the most pernicious problem is that weather broadcasts must cover a relatively large area and so many of the alert signals transmitted by those broadcasts will be irrelevant to a large percentage of the listening population. For example, flood or tornado warnings are typically applicable only to listeners in a subsection of a particular county, while the remaining listeners are not in substantial danger. Unfortunately, however, all citizens that are tuned to the weather broadcast will hear the alert signal for every localized emergency. This results in the situation not unlike the fable of the Boy Who Cried Wolf, in which citizens decide that the warnings are not normally relevant, and either ignore them or turn their NWS receiver off. Most particularly, citizens often do not place a NWS receiver in their bedroom, because they would rather not be disturbed at night unless there is a certain life-threatening emergency. This perhaps explains why tornadoes and floods that occur at night are often the most deadly, because citizens do not receive emergency notifications.
Local municipalities have sometimes utilized civil defense siren systems to sound loud audible alerts in time of emergency to help capture the attention of urban residents. However, the sounding of an emergency siren can be confusing, requiring the notification recipient to seek additional information. The siren could mean a severe weather emergency, a chemical spill, volcanic eruption, a monthly system test or any other condition that local government decides to note (such as a “noon whistle”). Many citizens will, as a consequence, ignore such sirens rather than invest the time to determine their meaning. Furthermore, under the best conditions, the effectiveness of a siren is dependent upon proximity to the siren. Citizens that live near to the siren, live in poorly sound-insulated buildings, have normal hearing and/or are light sleepers, are much more likely to be notified of emergencies than citizens that live far from the siren, live in quiet buildings, are hearing impaired and/or are sound sleepers. As a consequence, it has been found that many people sleep right through nighttime siren alerts, and many severe weather fatalities are attributable to people just not hearing a siren. Further diminishing this system's effectiveness, many siren systems are over 50 years old and plagued with maintenance problems. Furthermore, sirens evidence spotty urban population coverage due to urban expansion that has outgrown system capacity.
Similar problems of notifying citizenry arise in non-weather related emergencies. For example, when there is a chemical spill or explosive threat, appropriate emergency services are dispatched to attempt to mitigate the impact to human health or property. Often, the full scope of the emergency can not be ascertained until emergency crews actually arrive at the scene. If the emergency has the potential to escalate and endanger more lives and other communities, emergency organizations must again rely on broadcasting for notification.
The United States Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA) requires companies to develop Risk Management Program (RMP) plans. The required RMP plans describe chemical risks at industrial sites and the programs these facilities use to prevent accidental releases and minimize the impact on human health in the unlikely event that a release should occur. When applicable, the RMP includes air dispersion modeling to determine the potential off-site consequences of a release. Some HAZMAT (Hazardous Materials) vehicles also contain portable computers loaded with software to calculate and plot air dispersion modeling on an area map to accurately define impacted areas. These tools assist the identification and mitigation planning for fire departments and emergency responders during hazardous chemical releases. However, in order for these agencies to take appropriate actions, including ordering evacuation or sheltering-in-place, the agency must be able to achieve prompt community notification. Unfortunately, community notice of evacuation and sheltering-in-place, can only be achieved by broadcast notification and/or door to door notification. However, as noted above, broadcasting requires the attention of local citizenry, and furthermore, door-to-door notification is time consuming and potentially dangerous to emergency personnel.
As has been shown, current reliance upon local media and supplemental NWR broadcasts are insufficiently effective in notifying individuals when danger threatens life or property. Citizens must always have their TV on and they must be watching; or their radio must be turned on and they must be listening for a broadcast alert to be effective. There is thus a compelling need for an alert notification system that is designed to always be available whenever the need arises, a notification system that can not be turned off (short of termination of service). This system should not require the notification recipient purchase any additional equipment and the system should deliver an alert signal with which we have all been instinctively trained to respond. It is also important that the alert notification system have the ability to pinpoint, calculate and define dynamically all recipients with respect to their notification requirements then systematically notify those individuals (and only those individuals) within those defined geographic locations. The system must provide the notification quickly and accurately, with the ability to track the progress of the notification process and provide scenario resolution status until the notification scenario is completed or until the alert has expired.